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Survival Risk Quotient: 77
Captain Dave's Survival Risk Quotient attempts to rank how close we are to an all-out global disaster, also know as TEOTWAWKI, or "the end of the world as we know it." 100 is TEOTWAWKI, 50 is an average threat level and 0 is a peaceful world with no threats, or what it would have been like for Adam and Eve without the Serpent.

This quotient, updated on Saturday, August 12, has increased to 77 due to the terrorist threat in the U.K., Hizbollah's attacks on Israel and her response, tensions between Iran and the rest of the world over the Iranian nuclear program, and North Korea's continued missile development. This level is moving beyond "threatening" and may soon require more than ongoing alertness and monitoring. If you have not prepared yet, the time do so may be dwindling.

Threat #1: Terrorism is back .. no wait, it never left

• The U.S. and U.K. narrowly escaped a terrorist attack that would have involved 10 commercial jet liners and 50 terrorists, causing physical, economic and psychic damage on par with 9/11 and the 7/7 attacks. Let this serve as a stark reminder that the threat of terrorism in the U.S. has not gone away. The war on terror remains and ongoing battle, and the U.S. and its allies need to continue to fight fanatic and fascist muslims in Iraq, Iran and throughout the Middle East.
  
• This is not a time for surrender in the war on terror, not the time to pull out of Iraq or to negotiate a temporary peace. This is a time to prepare for more attacks and to press home our advantages. It is far better to keep muslim fanatics tied up in Iraq than smuggling rocket-propelled grenades and suicide belts into the U.S. and Europe.

Threat #2: The war against Muslim fanatics heats up

• The Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States lasted more than 40 years, flaring up in places like Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, and South America as proxies fought what was really a battle between communism and capitalism. In the end, capitalism and democracy won the economic and military battles.

• Today, democracy is again under attack and we are embroiled in a war against fascist muslims who wish to destroy not only our way of life, but everyone who does not subscribed to their perverted teachings. They wish to return to the 16th century, where women are chattel, infidels must be destroyed and jews wiped from the face of the earth. This battle may one day become a new crusade.

• When we fought the Soviet Union and their proxies, the enemies were in uniform, the rules of warfare were generally observed and threats were made more often than they were carried out. This war is different. The enemy does not wear uniforms and are often hidden among us and our allies. They do not follow the rules of war, but hide behind civilians and the walls of mosques. They use terror as a weapon and the media to win converts. Threats are made, intending to be carried out.
  
• Captain Dave believes that it will get worse before it gets better. Expect this to be a long, simmering war with occasional flare ups, much like the Cold War. The silver cloud is that the longer it takes, the better we will get at fighting this new kind of war. The grim lining of that cloud is that we must also relax the rules of war and carry the battle to the mosques and civilian sympathizers who allow these terrorist to use them. Fire bombings of German and Japanese cities that killed huge numbers of civilians helped end World War II, and we may need to eventually target civilians to bring this one to a close. After all, our citizens are apparently fair game to the terrorists.
  
• If you take survival seriously, if you do not want to see terrorists on these shores, then Captain Dave urges you not to vote for appeasement-minded candidates who lack to the stomach to finish a war we did not start. The answer is strength, not weakness, and Washington cry babies and leakers make this great country appear weak and divided when we need most to have a united front. After all, we are Americans, not the French.

Threat #3: Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

• Does anyone seriously believe Iran wants a nuclear program for peaceful reasons? Let's be honest -- Iran wants to build nuclear weapons so they can blow up Israel, threaten the U.S. and Europe, and spread their brand of fanaticism around the globe. They're clearly going to pursue it regardless of what European leaders or the UN says or does.

• The entire Hizbollah kidnapping and attack on Israel was orchestrated to take the world's eye off Iran and their nuclear ambitions, a tactic that has succeeded admirably. Captain Dave offers his congratulations to Israel for having the stones to stand up and fight rather than negotiate. This is the only way to stop a bully. Although the U.N. peace deal is not yet finalized, it looks like a win for Israel and we predict it will be some time before another Israeli soldier is kidnapped.
  
• Iran's stalling tactics have worked in the short term, but much of the game remains to be played. Captain Dave still predicts a military attack on Iranian nuclear processing capabilities by the U.S., Israel or another country before the end of President Bush’s second term. The process is building, and going to the UN is but the first step. In the meantime, there will be rhetoric on both sides, and the price of oil with stutter-step upwards due to concerns that Iran will tighten the taps if the UN sanctions them.

Threat #4: How far can North Korea's missiles reach?

• The Fourth of July seems like a long time ago, but North Korea is probably using that time to fix and improve their missile technology. Whether or not they can reach U.S. shores with a nuclear warhead remains to be seen, but there is no doubt that this regime is unstable at best. While you cannot deal rationally with the irrational, you can smack them when they act out and hope that pain is still one thing they can learn from. At some point, North Korea will cross the line and Japan is likely to smack them back down. Let's hope it happens before they actually light up a nuke.

Threat #5: Nuclear Threats

• I has been more than 50 years since a nuclear weapon was last used in anger, but Captain Dave does not expect this record to last another five years. Despite the best efforts, the nuclear genie is spinning out of control faster than an Iranian centrifuge. Here is our list top five targets for an intentional nuclear detonation in the next few years:
  
  1. North Korea as the source (most likely) or target
  2. Iran/Israel confrontation (Israel is believed to have nukes, and Iran may possess them sooner than we think)
  3. Terrorist attack on the U.S.
  4. Terrorist attack on the UK or European targets
  5. Terrorist attack in the Middle East, potentially in Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Israel

  Keep in mind that the hallmark of recent terrorist attacks is multiple near-simultaneous attacks, so a terrorist attack with nukes could affect multiple cities and be quite ugly. Regardless of the circumstances, a nuclear detonation would cause short-term panic and serious and severe long-term consequences for the U.S. and the rest of the world, not the least of which would probably be a global depression. Such an event would also signal the beginning of a new and even more dangerous era for the U.S. as the gloves come off and we see the most active state of warfare since World War II.

• Read up on how to prepare for and survive a nuclear event and subsequent fallout.

Threat #6: Gasoline, Oil and the Economy

• Gasoline is back up over $3 per gallon for most of the country. It now costs Captain Dave more than $60 to fill up his gas tank. The bad news is that it will probably cost $80 to $100 over the course of the next year or two. We are sticking with our prediction made in January that the average price of gasoline will reach $4 or $4.50 per gallon in 2007.

• Despite the high cost of oil, natural gas and gasoline, the U.S. economy is hanging in there and showing remarkable resiliency. Growth is slowing, but we seem to be successfully heading towards a soft landing. The Fed is walking a thin line between inflation and recession, and we must monitor this to see which way the economy turns. Be especially wary of external events -- like another Katrina, a terrorist attack or Avian Influenza -- that could cause the economy to tip towards a recession.
  
• Preparing for an economic emergency is wise, even when one is not on the horizon, because eventually all good things come to an end and eventually our cyclical economy will stall and sputter. Prepare today by eliminating debt, diversifying your investments, owning a house and storing food and other necessities.

Threats on the Horizon

• Hurricane season is upon us, and we expect it to be a heavy one, especially after the very hot season. Look for storms at the end of August and through September. Make your preparations now, before plywood, bottled water, batteries and MREs sell out.
  
• Flu season is still several months away, but the question remains: Will this be the year Avian Influenza makes the jump to human-to-human transmission? Bird flu could be the worst disaster in recent memory, or it could fizzle like Y2K. No one knows, but many people are betting on the former. Make your plans and preparation while you still can.

Hurricanes and Your Need to Prepare

Hurricane Katrina demonstrated what we have been saying for years: You need to rely on yourself in a survival situation, not the government. Whether its a hurricane, a tornado, Avian Influenza, terrorism, or another disaster, you should be prepared to protect yourself and your family rather than expecting FEMA or someone else to rescue you.

The most important thing that you can do to protect yourself and you loved ones is to start preparing before the emergency strikes, not once it is here or just around the corner. Not only will this give you the best chance, it will be cheaper and easier. Read Captain Dave's Survival Guide for tips on planning your evacuation and to help improve your odds of survival.

Earlier this year, Dave read a book published in 1937 entitled "Gateway to Survival is Storage." While our world has changed, the basic message is as important as ever: Having stored food and other supplies is the best thing you can do to prepare for an emergency. Long term storage foods are currently on sale in our online store.

Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina

The clean up continues and it may be years before the Gulf Coast fully recovers. Learn from the experience of others. Here are four basic lessons from Katrina:

• Don’t expect the government or anyone else to save you. You are responsible for your own personal safety.
  
• If your plan calls for an evacuation, get out early. Don’t wait until gasoline is in short supply and the highways are clogged.

• If you do evacuate, have somewhere to go and try to avoid shelters. Try to visit friends or family in a distant city that is unlikely to be affected by the same disaster.

• If you stay home, have some way to protect yourself from the looting, unruliness and unrest that often occurs in the vacuum that seems to follow every major disaster. Firearms are a great deterrent and a powerful tool if you have the knowledge to use them.

Great Deals on Long Term Storage Food, Hurricane Supplies, Back to School Clothes and Winter Gear
All the great free information on Captain Dave's web site is made possible thanks to sales from our store. We continue to add new items, from new boots, shoes and thermal underwear to more knives, gear bags, tactical items and will be rolling out new products this spring. Check out the Survival Shop, for long-term storage food, heavy duty clothing, great winter clothes, cool cargo pants, combat boots, insulated coveralls, flight jackets and flight suits, hunting and camping gear and all sorts of other nifty stuff!

The Terrorist Threat
We know that Muslim extremists hate America and what we stand for. They hate our freedom, our individual rights, our wealth and our opportunity. They hate our religion, and they hate our values, and our culture. They hate not only our president, but our form of government. And they hate the military progress and success we have made in Afghanistan and Iraq. They fear us and our might and know that we seek to destroy them before they can destroy us.

We don’t know how many cells of terrorists are lying in wait, planning one or more attacks. We don't know if they have biological weapons like Anthrax or chemical weapons like nerve gas. We don’t know if they have plans to attack a chemical facility that could release phosgene, hydrogen cyanide or another deadly chemical into the air. We don't know if they will attack a rail yard or a water purification plant, releasing a cloud of poisonous chlorine gas into a nearby neighborhood. We don't know if they have conventional weapons, or if they will target an important bridge or dam, blowing it up with a truckload of fertilizer and diesel fuel. But we do know that many of them have been trained in camps; trained to build and set explosives, trained in guerrilla warfare, trained in how to create car bombs and dirty bombs and suicide bombs. We know they have a burning desire to use this training, to attack Americans and Europeans and Jews and even those who believe in a gentler form of Islam. We know they will gladly die in the process of delivering an attack that succeeds in killing Americans or people who cooperate with the United States. We know that they will strike again. We expect it.

Whether or not we foil another attack, each and every American citizen needs to be prepared, both mentally, emotionally and physically, for another 9/11, or for a far worse scenario. You should be ready and able to gather your family together if they strike again. You should have food and water for several weeks or even months should our water supply be poisoned or transportation disrupted. You should have a means to defend yourself if civil unrest develops. You should have a means to survive if the economy falters and the stock market crashes. Use the information on these pages to prepare, but start now, before it is too late. If you are worried about chemical or biological attack, read about how to create a safe room.

Bird Flu Spreads in Asia, Europe

Experts agree that the U.S. and the rest of the developed world have been lucky to have gone so long without a major epidemic. But with increased intercontinental travel, crowded conditions in major cities, and Chinese farmers living in close proximity to their animals, it could just be a matter of time before Avian Influenza becomes a human disease and causes a pandemic.

Many respiratory diseases will start with symptoms similar to a cold or the flu, so an epidemic could start before anyone really knows it. In fact, experts believe there are far more cases in China and the Far East that are not being reported.

U.S. hospitals are under-prepared and don't have enough isolation wards. Most scary are "super spreaders," people who contaminate dozens of others without even knowing it. People riding in an elevator in a Hong Kong hotel caught SARS from a doctor who stayed there. From that single point, it roared across much of Asia and into Toronto. The same could happen with a future illness. The Centers for Disease control has recommended strict quarantine in the case of an outbreak, including travel restrictions, closing work places and schools, shutting down mass transit and setting aside entire hospitals for SARS patients. They would adopt similar precautions in the event of another highly contagious disease. Are you prepared for this? Dave recommends that you take steps to stay healthy and build your immune system so that a casual exposure will not sicken you, but once an outbreak starts he recommends:

If bird flu strikes, stay out of public areas and practice self-imposed quarantine. If you must go out in public, wear a surgical or N95 mask and wash your hands regularly. Decontaminate (wash with antibacterial soap) as soon as you come home. Limit your air travel as much as possible. SARS has been spread by people on airlines, and it is likely that Avian Influenza will be as well. Stay off public transportation once the illness has reached your area. Avoid crowded public spaces such as movie theaters, malls and arenas. Pull your children out of school.

Avoid hospitals and health clinics where sick people will go for diagnoses and treatment. A huge percentage of SARs patients got sick while in the hospital. If you are sick and need care, go to the hospital, but don’t do so for elective surgery. If you need prescriptions refilled, do so through the mail, or at least use the drive-in window if your pharmacy has one, rather than going and waiting in line with all the other ill people at the pharmacy counter.

Once an epidemic has reached your region of the country, practice Self-Imposed Quarantine. Instead of expecting sick or contagious to isolate themselves, take the initiative and isolate yourself. Locking your family inside the house is much safer and more foolproof than expecting someone who is contagious to know it and to willingly quarantine themselves. Read Dave's fictional account of how the next SARS epidemic gets started. This is several years old, but it could be the same for any similar contagious disease, such as Bird Flu

Starting to Prepare
Every time there is a hurricane or other natural disaster, a terrorist attack, talk of war, or another threat, people turn to these pages searching for answers. If you are reading these pages because of a sudden desire to protect yourself and your loved ones, to survive and perhaps even thrive during the down times, we welcome you and can help you get started.  We suggest you read Captain Dave's Survival Guide and follow its recommendations. You don't have to live in the woods to be a survivalist, as plenty of New Yorkers proved after 9/11. That determination to survive, to walk home, barefoot, bloody and covered in ash, shows that there is a little bit of a survivalist in thousands of New Yorkers. We're betting its there in you, too. Hopefully, we can help you tap that inner spirit.

Here's your first lesson: Do not count on others to protect you. The police usually cannot stop a murder, a sniper attack or terrorist act from occurring, only arrest those who have committed it and hope it serves a deterrent. The government cannot always stop terrorists, only kill them afterwards and try to track down their leadership. The first lesson of being a survivalist is that you must be responsible for your own well-being. You must protect yourself.

When in Doubt, Plan
Many people facing fear and uncertainty have found that knowledge is the best cure. This web site exists to help you gain some of that knowledge, to help you prepare, to give you the information you need to improve your odds at survival if you are ever caught up in the worst case scenario.

Whether you fear bombs, biological weapons, something as severe as the collapse of civilization or as mundane as a hurricane, making a plan to deal with the worst-case scenario can help reduce your level of fear. We believe the information and guidance we provide here can help you be better prepared and therefore overcome, or at least manage, your fear.

For example, people fearing anthrax can learn how to construct a "safe room" in your home.

Preparing for a Biological or Chemical Attack
The government has bought at 100 million doses of Cipro, 1.2 billion does of doxycycline and has ordered 300 million smallpox vaccines, but they tell us not to worry. They are also stockpiling anti-virals should the bird flu break out and working on vaccines. Yet they clearly fear the threat of continued or expanded biological terror attacks, and for good reason.

We have all seen first hand the disruption caused by a few envelopes and a few sniper's bullets. Worse yet are concerns of terrorist in crop dusters spraying sporting events and downtown streets with anthrax spores. And Anthrax is the least of our problems because it can be treated with antibiotics and is not very contagious. No, officials are far more worried about Smallpox, a disease that the UN has considered "eradicated" for some 30 years. They are worried about suicidal bombers in the subways or shopping malls. But how much should we worry? Is the threat realistic? Do you really need a gas mask to survive in the future?